As BBVA warns that credit markets in Brazil are losing dynamism, Barclay’s Marcelo Salomon gives his 2-cent below on what’s happening… in his opinion, there is “only moderation, not deleveraging”…. yet. Of course, the government is still trying to stimulate growth at a time of financial crisis and high inflation (in Brazil). It is yet to be seen if “opening the tap” of credit will solve the economy issues like it did in 2008.
As per Salomon’s words:
Credit growth is moderating. Total credit grew 18.3 per cent year-on-year in October, from 19.7 per cent in September, as both market and earmarked credit cooled to 16.4 per cent and 22 per cent, from 17.4 per cent and 24 per cent, respectively, in September. Within the private sector, the largest contraction was observed in corporate credit (15.7 per cent from 17.2per cent), while household credit remained resilient, inching down to 17.1 per cent from 17.7 per cent. New household credit granting, in fact, picked up speed in October to 9.8 per cent year-on-year (from 8.0 per cent in September) and showed a robust 3.5 per cent month-on-month real gain in seasonally adjusted terms at the margin … The labor market is a key factor in determining household credit, and it remains on strong footing. But with domestic activity slowing, employment is likely to moderate and also a reduction in supply for new loans.
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