As per SocGen’s notes:

“In emerging economies, risks have clearly shifted to the downside and notably for the BIITS (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa),” they continued. “Geopolitical tensions, moreover, add to these downside risks via the oil price channel. SG’s oil specialist, Mike Wittner, sees only a temporary spike from Syria, assuming there is no significant contagion. In China, the risks centre on the credit channels and taming of the shadow banking sector. A hard landing for China would see a hard landing for the global economy too.”

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