– We expect the Brazilian economy to grow 3.0% in 2011 and 3.3% in 2012.
– Although the labor market remains tight, job creation has decelerated, and we expect a gradual increase in unemployment (from current 5.8% to 6.4%).
– Credit growth has decelerated, prompting the government to revoke some of the macroprudential measures.
– We still see inflation above 5% next year despite the changes in the IPCA methodology.
– We still do not see inflation returning to 4.5% next year, but continue to expect more rate cuts ahead.
– We expect the government to meet its full primary fiscal surplus target of 3.15% of GDP in 2011, but project a smaller surplus for 2012.
– While risk of currency depreciation remains high due to global environment, we continue to assume a relatively benign scenario for the currency.