We will start posting here a monthly dashboard of leading Brazil economic indicators. Below is just a section “snapshot” for the month of October…
Economists lowered Brazil’s 2011 GDP growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.8% in the last 30 days. Growth in exports and imports slowed in September to 23.6% and 13.9%YoY respectively. Consumer sentiment, though still optimistic, weakened further as the Consumer Confidence Index declined for a second consecutive month to 114.7 in September while growth in retail sales slowed to 6.2% YoY in August. Meanwhile, business sentiment continued its steady decline as the Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 45.5 in September and the Business Confidence Index declined for the seventh quarter in a row to 56.4 in Q3 2011. Inflationary pressure intensified as the central bank lowered interest rates in a bid to bolster economic growth: the Consumer Price Index increased to 7.3% in September, significantly higher than the target rate of 4.5%. Other highlights include:
– The BM&F; Bovespa Index lost 8.1% in the last 30 days.
– The SELIC overnight rate declined to 11.9% in the last 30 days.
– Net FDI decreased to $5.6 billion in August while Net Foreign Investment in Sao Paulo Stock Exchange registered an outflow of 287 million Real.
Economists lowered Brazil’s 2011 GDP growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.8% in the last 30 days. Country risk fell slightly as the credit default swap spread on its sovereign debt decreased by 1.5 bps to 171.7 bps in the last 30 days.