Out this morning, third-quarter GDP grew 0.6% seasonally-adjusted form the second quarter, much lower than the market estimates of 1.2%. Early this year, analysts forecast about 4% growth for 2012. Austin revised its numbers to 0.9% (if everything goes well).

 “Today’s report was awful,” Neil Shearing, who was forecasting below-consensus 1 percent growth as chief emerging markets economist for Capital Economics Ltd., said by phone from London. “The really disappointing thing about today’s data is that despite all the policy stimulus over the past year, it’s clear the economy is still struggling to get going.”

“After so much stimulus, investment is even worse than in the second quarter,” Pedro Tuesta, senior Latin America economist at 4Cast Inc., told Bloomberg. “If investment doesn’t rebound, then we are in trouble in 2013.”

Wishful thinking

While the GDP number was not what the government was hoping for, the economy is accelerating and will expand by 1 percent in the fourth quarter, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said. The government is maintaining its forecast for 4 percent growth next year, he said at a news conference in Sao Paulo.

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