Tatiana Pinheiro, Santander:

Next Copom meeting: cut by 0.5%
2012 Selic: 9.5%
Comments: she warns about a “significant worsening” of the crisis. The economist goes further and says that external shock simulations show that this crisis will be long lasting. This time is different than 2008. There will be no crash, but it will be prolonged.

Sergio Vale, MB Associados

Next Copom meeting: cut by 0.5%
2012 Selic: 9.0%

Comments: the perception of an inevitable trend of contraction in global activity in the coming months is the main argument.


Andre Perfeito, Gradual Investimentos
Next Copom meeting: cut by 0.5%
2012 Selic: 10%

Comments: the Selic rate could fall further to 9.5% if there is a worsening of the level of activity externally. However, he thinks the CB should cut the basic interest rate by less than it could in order to help the anchoring of the inflation estimates.


Jankiel Santos, BES Investimentos
Next Copom meeting: cut by 0.5%

2012 Selic: 11%

Comments: for now, “the indications given by the CB justify this projection”, Santos said, referring to the frequent statements of the CB chief Alexander Tombini, that interest rates should continue in the process of “moderate adjustment.”


BBDTVM
Next Copom meeting: cut by 0.5 – 0.75%

2012 Selic: 9.5%

Comments: we see that the international crisis suffered further deterioration in the last 45 days. However, the absence of signs of the CB will accelerate the pace of cuts in recent speeches suggest the maintaining of their current strategy.

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