Following up on our last “guru’s predictions” article when we discussed the bad market calls made by Roubini and Rosenberg, here we add one more guru to our list: Bob Janjuah, Nomura’s strategist. Even if time proves him right, we can not deny that looking at this chart is at least fun… our question is if it is too late to “short” his ideas.
Here is a recap of what the strategist said last October:
“It is for these reasons that my secular view remains bearish. In or within a year from now I expect global equities to be 25% to 30% lower. My S&P500 target for the low in 2012 remains 800/900, and I think an ‘undershoot’ into the 700s is entirely possible. For the valuation-focused, assume S&P 500 EPS in 2012 of $90/$100, and P/Es in the 8 to 9 area – I see this kind of P/E as the new norm in the kind of world we are in. In this bearish outcome I would expect 10-year bund yields at 1% to 1.25%, 10 year UST yields at 1.25% to 1.5%, and 10-year gilts below 2%. The USD should do well, credit and commodities should not.”