Stay another 90 days and then get out!? That’s what seem to be the message.
First, the celebration:
“Enjoy the party, but don’t stay too long,” recommended Credit Suisse Hedging-Griffo’s Luis Stuhlberger when talking about investments in the Brazilian stock market to an audience of 90 listeners last Monday in Sao Paulo. “My guess is that in the next 90 to 120 days, if things don’t get worse, we’ll see the stock market pushing into higher limits”.
“The dollar can fall even more (Real can strengthen further) with all this foreign direct investment, IPOs and money flowing into the stock market,” he said. “The problem (inflation followed by currency devaluation) will not be now.”
But he seem to be pulling out from Bovespa…
Stuhlberger sees the market outside Brazil as increasingly more favorable. “Every day I see myself selling in Brazil and buying shares abroad,” he said.
Sounds a bit strange to hear a dissenting voice in a time when perceptions about Brazil often have a very positive bias. But it says a lot about a manager who takes it very seriously the exercise of anticipating trends.
What if the house falls apart, with Europe?
“… if everything goes wrong, the money will lose value and people will run to the bank teller. But the Brazilian economy based on commodities, dollar (potentially) at R$2 and high wages, can stand a lot,” he said. “I would not count on Chinese or Italian to spoil our party. Brazil can only be spoiled by Brazilians.”