Fitch Ratings believes that credit growth in emerging markets will slowdown in 2012.
Among the reasons mentioned by the agency are the deterioration of the global economic outlook and the monetary policy measures adopted by some countries to curb consumption. The ratings agency also said that bank loans in countries like Brazil should continue growing. 
For instance, Caixa Economica showed a 72.5% increase in net income this quarter, driven mainly by credit. Despite these results, the ratings agency warned of an acceleration in default rates, which should affect local banks. 
Fitch also notes that China is seeing a deterioration in the quality of its banks’ assets. Credit growth in China is still high, although it showed a moderate slowdown in the last quarter. 
In some regions of Latin America (including Brazil, Colombia and Peru), Asia (India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka) and Europe (Turkey, Russia, Georgia) the risks are lower. Still according to Fitch, the main reason for the lower risks in these regions is that the relationship between credit and gross domestic product (GDP) is still relatively small. In Brazil, this ratio increased to represent 48.4% in September, compared to 47.9% in the previous month.
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