According to its latest report, Deutsche Bank seems to think so (for an overview of the Brazilian car market, read here). In summary, the report says:

The US market is gradually overcoming its deep crisis. In 2010, unit sales of light vehicles (LV) were already up 11%. And in 2011, an increase of more than 10% was recorded. Despite this growth, the 2011 sales volume is still down 25% (or more than 4 m units) on the 2005 level. On the one hand, this shows the scale of the crisis, on the other it signals an enormous backlog demand.

In 2012, the US car market will continue to recover, albeit at a slower pace. We expect a unit sales increase of roughly 2%. In 2013, sales are likely to accelerate as the overall economic situation is improving; our 2013 forecast is a high single-digit growth rate.

In the medium term, prospects for the US car market remain positive. Towards the middle of the current decade, LV sales should have returned to their high pre-crisis levels. And in the longer term, an even higher sales volume is likely. The main drivers are the growing population figures (another 50 m people by 2030) as well as the major importance of cars for US consumers. LV production in the US will also pick up again in the next few years, starting from a low level. Among the risks are the effect of the debt crisis on the US economy as well as the development of oil prices.

German car producers are well positioned in the USA. Their share of unit LV sales continued to increase over the last few years and reached a good 8% in 2011. By 2015 this market share is expected to have risen further to 10%. The main reasons are the attractive range of models and the expansion of production at US plants. This should make German brands even more attractive.


Diesel and hybrid vehicles will expand their share of the US auto market in the next few years. They can help to increase the energy efficiency in US road traffic. An increase in the market share of diesel passenger cars would benefit German producers most. In the passenger car segment, the diesel share could increase to 3% by 2015; hybrid cars could even attain a high single-digit market share.

Source: Deutsche Bank

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