And he is serious!
In an interview to Valor Economico, the chief economist at Banco ABC Brazil, Luis Otavio de Souza, said that the current flat GDP growth in 3Q is a “point outside the curve.” From now on, he says, the trend will be positive, with the economy growing at an annualized rate of around 8% starting in Q2 2012.
More on his
This “Chinese-style” growth pace, will be derived from measures to stimulate consumption and interest rate cuts. The economic expansion next year should be drawn from both household consumption and investments. A lot of work is need for the Olympics and World Cup (
If the projections of ABC Brazil come to fruition, his GDP statistics for 2013 will be 2.7%. With these numbers, he explains, it means that the economy would not need to do anything in 2013 (after 8% growth in 2012) to have almost the same growth expected in 2011.
And then, at some point in the interview, he gets closer to reality:
He projects a 2.9% expansion in the Brazilian economy for 2011, with fourth quarter GDP at 0.4% qoq. Souza considers unlikely a GDP growth of over 3% this year. (our comment: really? Damn it, we were hoping for 13% growth in Q4 2011… after all, it is do-able, this is Braziiiiiil!)