• Brazilian Bubble
  • Home
  • DailyTrade
  • About Us
  • Disclaimer

Why the Next 5 Years May Spell More Trouble for Emerging Markets

Posted on September 22, 2014 · Add Comment
eem spx
As we have recently talked about the secular bullish dollar (that may be currently developing), we should point to a few things that can corroborate with this idea. Emerging Markets This is a group of stocks ($EEM) that have been dramatically underperforming the US Stock Market for basically 4 years. Look at the difference [...]
Read Full Article →

US Dollar May Be In for Secular Bull Market: Bad News for Brazil’s Bovespa

Posted on September 10, 2014 · Add Comment
Screen Shot 2014-09-10 at 11.42.26 AM
The US dollar has been continuing to vault higher in the last few weeks, with strength broadening impressively versus all other major currencies. According to StockCharts.com’s John Murphy, the US Dollar appears to be forming a major bottom, which is a very bad news for commodities (as US Dollar and commodities trend is opposite directions). [...]
Read Full Article →

Technical Analysis: Big Move Ahead for Priceline ($PCLN)?

Posted on August 26, 2014 · Add Comment
pcln
There are a number of companies that receive much attention from media types and are better known for their investment prowess, including Netflix, Priceline and Chipotle. But today, among these, I will point to Priceline ($PCLN) as a potential short-time mover. The reason is that its weekly “Bollinger Bandwidth” is squeezed and pointing to a huge volatility expansion shortly. Please [...]
Read Full Article →

Brazil Government “Milks the Cow” (Petrobras), Again

Posted on June 24, 2014 · Add Comment
It hurts to be a minority shareholder in “certain companies”. In what an analyst called a “monstrous reversal,” Petrobras shares have reversed a positive gain of 3% by mid-afternoon to finish the section down 3.6% after the market slowly digested the latest maneuver that the Brazilian government has architected with the company’s cash. The Government [...]
Read Full Article →

Petrobras sells African asset for peanuts to Brazil’s “vampire squid” BTG Pactual, who gets free-lunch from Brazilian taxpayers (again)

Posted on May 5, 2014 · Add Comment
btg
Petrobras needed to raise some money. So investment bankers showed the company’s board that its oil fields in Nigeria, Angola and Namibia could be turned into a company itself in the way of an IPO, something like a “Petrobras Africa”, which would have a market value of between US$11 billion and US$17 billion. (for calculation [...]
Read Full Article →

Moody’s: World Cup to have Zero Impact on Brazil GDP

Posted on March 31, 2014 · Add Comment
According to a report by rating Agency Moody’s, the World Cup, which has been being planned for the last seven years to leave “great legacy” to Brazil, will bring “fleeting” effects to the Brazilian economy. Here is the report summary: Football’s biggest tournament will have fleeting effects. Successfully hosting the 2014 World Cup will raise [...]
Read Full Article →

Bubblicious Alert: Private Equity Firm Carlyle to Bail Out Brazil Real-Estate Developer

Posted on March 20, 2014 · Add Comment
According to a Bloomberg report, Carlyle partners are reaching into their wallets to bail out one of the private-equity firm’s first investments in Brazil. Senior Carlyle professionals have injected $66.9 million and their firm has poured another $21.1 million into Urbplan Desenvolvimento Urbano SA, a real-estate developer that’s been hit with hundreds of lawsuits, in [...]
Read Full Article →

World Economics: Brazil Real Still 19% Overvalued

Posted on March 11, 2014 · Add Comment
WPI-201403-C7
Seems like the Real (BRL) still has more room to come down against the US Dollar. According to World Economics, the Real remains overvalued by 19%, which makes its fair value at around $2.90-2.95 to the US Dollar exchange (it currently trades at R$2.35). The World Price Index (WPI) indicates that even though the Real [...]
Read Full Article →

EXAME: Brazil’s Commercial Real Estate Bubble is Bursting with Empty Malls and Vacant Office Towers

Posted on February 28, 2014 · Add Comment
bubble brazil
According to a recent article at Exame magazine, the commercial real estate bubble is in its initial bursting phase. Here’s a summary snapshot of the article (and the full original article in Portuguese right below it): “… The greatest symbol of the Brazilian real estate bubble are not the R$1 million studio condos, but the [...]
Read Full Article →

Lula’s Fairy Tale: Why Brazil is Not the Land of Opportunities

Posted on February 25, 2014 · Add Comment
The news site Valor Economico published today a long text signed by former Brazilian President Lula, with a somewhat distorted view of the Brazilian economy, worthy of someone who had just consumed Prozac – or wanted to sell a big fish while eyeing the next Presidential elections. Perhaps Lula’s country is not the same as [...]
Read Full Article →

Brazil as Usual: “Petrobras employees linked to bribery in a $3.5B service contract”

Posted on February 18, 2014 · Add Comment
petrobras bribery
According to LatinNews, Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras has been linked to a bribery scandal in Holland involving SBM Offshore, a Dutch maritime engineering group that in April 2013 was awarded a massive US$3.5bn contract by Petrobras to build two deep water floating oil rigs. The rigs, known as floating, production, storage and offloading platforms [...]
Read Full Article →

Itau’s Chief Economist: “Will emerging economies submerge, while advanced economies emerge?”

Posted on February 12, 2014 · Add Comment
By Ilan Goldfajn. The beginning of 2014 came with a warning that sounded like flight instructions: fasten your belts as the year is about to start. Investors decided to withdraw billions of dollars from investment funds in emerging economies. There are victims among the countries. Turkey saw its currency depreciate and was forced into an [...]
Read Full Article →

Technical Analysis: Time to be Bullish on Emerging Markets?

Posted on February 11, 2014 · Add Comment
emerging markets
As emerging markets (EM) have been down about 10% year-to-date alone, one can wonder if the sell-off is near its end. According to technical analyst Andrew Thrasher, the market’s “underlying internals may be giving us some clues to a shift in trend.” Here’s his main point: Below is a chart of the ratio between emerging markets [...]
Read Full Article →

Bubble Deflation: Office rental prices in Sao Paulo down for the first time in 10 years

Posted on February 10, 2014 · Add Comment
sao paulo real estate
According to a recent article on Estado de SP, for the first time in almost ten years the lease prices of commercial offices in São Paulo ended the year (2013) in negative territory, a clear indication of a much-needed correction. Seems like the early signs of a bubble deflation. “Prices have already reached the maximum [...]
Read Full Article →

Emerging Markets: 15th Straight Week Of Investor Outflows

Posted on February 7, 2014 · Add Comment
emerging markets outflows
As per Morgan Stanley’s Jonathan Garner, “in dollar terms, China (-US$1.14bn), India (-US$0.64bn), Brazil (-US0.63bn) and Russia (-US$0.60bn) reported the largest outflows for the current week.”
Read Full Article →

Stifel Nicolaus: “Brazilian Real will likely be the next battle line to watch”

Posted on January 29, 2014 · Add Comment
David Lutz, the head of ETF trading at Stifel Nicolaus, said so far in 2014 we’ve had seven central banks act to shore up their currencies against what he calls a “triple whammy” of headwinds. Specifically, he says emerging markets are getting squeezed by rising rates, falling commodity prices, and political instability and currency weakness in places [...]
Read Full Article →

SocGen on Emerging Markets 2014: “We are in full-blown financial contagion mode. Sell everything.”

Posted on January 27, 2014 · Add Comment
Emerging markets may be vulnerable today to the same sort of indiscriminate selling that from the late 1990s. From Reuters: “The wildfire engulfing the developing world is starting to look very like the currency runs of the past, such as the Asian, Russian and Latin American collapses that began in 1997. “We’ve seen this movie before,” said [...]
Read Full Article →

Brazil’s 2014 Calendar: Only three months of real work?

Posted on December 17, 2013 · Add Comment
brazil calendar 2014
A recent Reuters article mentioned recent jokes regarding the “Brazilian 2014 Calendar,” implying only 3 months of real work mainly because of the soccer World Cup, an unusually late Carnival, other holidays and a presidential election. Here is the “calendar”: According to it, only August, September and November will be productive months. More [...]
Read Full Article →

(Video) Robert Shiller on Brazil’s House Bubble: “Brazil right now feels like the US in 2005”

Posted on December 16, 2013 · Add Comment
shiller_w
Interesting interview with Robert Shiller on PBS… “You’d think that Brazilians would learn from America’s housing bubble.. but they seem to interpret their housing bubble as a sign of the country’s emergence.” According to him, it seems like the “patriotic forces” are blinding the population…
Read Full Article →

JPMorgan: Fed’s Tapering Could Slam the Brazilian Real

Posted on December 10, 2013 · Add Comment
As tapering approaches, deficit countries that “promoted pro-FDI policies and successfully narrowed their current account deficits are likely to be less vulnerable,” says J.P. Morgan. From a financing viewpoint, every country likes foreign direct investments because they are less likely to leave when economic adversities hit, and every creditor feels more secure when the borrower is [...]
Read Full Article →
← Previous Entries Next Entries →
  •  Facebook Twitter RSS
  • Receive premium content!
  • Hangover | Purple Tree
  • Healthy Sleep | SleepyFish