Phat Dragon (a China monthly chronicle written by Australian bank Westpac) has never been of the view that a “China hard landing” was likely – merely that a run of quarters considerably below both the potential rate and a reasonable comfort level were in the offing. The September quarter was the first in that run. The June quarter of 2012 ought to be the last. The timing depends principally upon two things. 1) The timing and nature of any policy shift at home, and 2) the depth and duration of the European downturn.
In another piece of news, Exame magazine alerts Brazil for the consequences of the chinese real estate bubble, citing the famous Barclays report that we have exclusively posted here for our readers 2 days ago (“Barclays Report: Bubble Deflation, Chinese Style“).