Talking about “Bears”… 
We have previous mentioned SLJ’s Stephen Jen forecasting the USD/BRL at a “bearish” BR$2,40 target. If you think he was nuts, others seem to agree.

According to Franklin Templeton senior economist Carlos Gomes de Freitas Filho Thadeu, the worsening of the EU crisis increases the likelihood of a worst-case scenario for the Brazilian economy in 2012, in which the dollar can shoot 30 percent and interest rates (Selic) fall to 8% next year. He sees 60 percent chance of this happening.
He told Exame magazine that “in such a scenario, the dollar can go from BR$2,00 to BR$2,40, the Selic rate drops to around 8 – 9% and the inflation (IPCA) to between 44.5% in 2012.” In his view, the Brazilian GDP growth may potentially slow to between 1 and 2% next year, about half the rates seen in a normal scenario.

He said the world economy will be impacted by the debt crisis in 2012 as European countries will have difficulties to finance their debt, forcing the European Central Bank to buy bonds from euro zone members.

The way the international crisis would affect Brazil is in the fall in investments and exports, which would be harmed by the fall in the prices of commodities. The falling commodity prices, said Gomes, would help to reduce Brazilian inflation, making room for more interest rate cuts. 

And he concludes: “The effect of the external environment should be deflationary.
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