I have said several times before that I strongly believe that the next crisis will arise in the BRIC countries. Apparently, some others agree. According to this Forbes article, here are a few of the crisis symptoms:
A steep rise in credit; rapid increases in house prices to levels way beyond available income; a constrained installed capacity that yields to inflationary tensions; a labor force with double digit wage rises; limitless liquidity flowing into sectors with low productivity, such as real estate; a rapid increase in corporate debt as a consequence of accelerated investment, mergers, and acquisitions, all fanned by the intoxicating feeling that demand will just keep going up; a political class living off an apparent bonanza, refusing to carry out the reforms needed to avoid disaster when the cycle eventually changes, ignoring calls for serious cutbacks in spending, or rises in taxes that could counteract the exuberance.”
Here are the consequences: housing bubble, inflation, over-reliance on the financial sector, widening of inequality gap, too much investments with uncertain returns, dependence on cheap money. 
And the author ends the article saying:
The BRICs still have time to stop this from happening by preparing “soft landings,” but then there is also the terrifying thought that there have been precious few soft landings in the course of history, especially when investment as a share of GDP has been consistently high.”
Full article here

Share →