According to Estadao newspaper, a research poll made by FGV shows that the percentage of industries with excess inventories of consumer goods in October (11%) is much larger than the share of companies with insufficient products (1.3%). Note (on graph 1 below) how the difference between the “excess” and the “insufficient” went up substantially in the last year alone. Data from the National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) indicate that stocks of vehicles stuck among shops and factories is currently equivalent to 40 days of sales. It is only worse than December 2008, when inventory volume turnover reached 57 days.
Graph 2. The average daily registrations of cars and light commercial vehicles, seasonally adjusted, which was around 13,800 per month until July, fell in August to 13,200. In September, it dropped to 13,100, and in October to 12,700, the lowest volume since June 2010. “After the macro-prudential measures, vehicle sales had already stopped growing. And for the last four months it’s been going downhill,” says Braulio Borges from LCA Consultores.
Graph 3. Note how labor income growth has been decelerating at a fast pace. In December 2010, overall income grew 15.8% compared to this year’s 8.6% growth projections.
And here is how everyone has been lowering GDP projections for Brazil since early this year…
Some analysts, like Banco Fibra’s chief economist Maristella Ansanelli, are convinced that industrial production will negatively affect GDP this year and keep it closer to 2.8%.